shared a link post in group #ScholER
Questions about whether insider trading is happening on prediction markets — and if it should actually matter — have been common on podcasts and social media lately (not to mention this newsletter). Now, for the first time, Kalshi — the largest prediction market in the US — has actually suspended a user for manipulating a market. Artem Kaptur, an employee of top YouTuber Jimmy "MrBeast” Donaldson, placed around $4000 into various markets related to his boss’ videos. Kalshi found him after observing that his account had “near-perfect success” on MrBeast trades, even when backing long shot predictions with low odds. (It turns out, guesses about upcoming MrBeast content, his subscriber count, and even details of his personal life are a popular niche on prediction markets.) Kalshi not only froze Kaptur’s account, blocking him from collecting his winnings, he's also been suspended for 2 years, fined $20,000, AND reported to regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Plus he got in trouble at work; Beast Industries told NPR that they have a zero tolerance policy for using insider information for personal gain.
techcrunch.com/2026/02/25..
